Macroeconomic Research and the Conference Board

The Conference Board: Mature economies are facing a historical turning point: for the first time since World War II, working-age populations are declining, said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board and a co-author of the report. The global financial crisis and its aftermath stubbornly high unemployment in many countries have postponed the onset of this demographic transformation, but will not prevent it from taking hold. Companies in the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere must begin planning now for an environment in which difficulties recruiting and retaining workers will make it significantly harder to control labour costs without losing labour quality, according to The Chronicle Herald. In examining likely labour-market trends in dozens of advanced economies, the report draws particular distinction between short-term outlooks which reflect the continued impact of the Great Recession on various countries and long-term forecasts rooted in demographic fundamentals. Indeed, while current labour markets in mature economies are not particularly tight overall wage growth and labour turnover both remain below prerecession levels this aggregate picture conceals huge variation between countries, with rapid reversal from labour surplus to shortage in many and Serious labour shortages in the worlds advanced economies will create unprecedented challenges for business leaders and policymakers over the next fifteen years and beyond, according to a comprehensive new report released today by The Conference Board. From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers forecasts the impact of aging populations to compound rapidly as increasing numbers of baby boomers depart workforces. It draws on first-of-its-kind analysis of the relative risk of shortages in myriad individual labour markets, including 32 national economies, 266 industries and 464 occupations in the United States, and 40 occupations in Europe. Jobs Now hard to find, soon hard to fill (www.immigrantscanada.com). As reported in the news.