Population Estimates: BC Stats

Population Estimates Dept: To dispute our data and conclusions, Mazzi and Glick rely on BC Stats as their primary source of age cohort population estimates. The authors acknowledge that the data they are using is derived from estimates. While this data is publicly available, we believe it is neither the best nor the most accurate data set to be used. Here's why, according to Vancouver Sun. In contrast, because of the inherent challenges in determining reliable population estimates, the VSB triangulates data using three sources to estimate the size of population of each age cohort: the Provincial Birth Registry, the Canada Revenue Agency, and the BC Student Information System BCeSIS . To calculate a population estimate for each age cohort we use a statistical model that accounts for migration patterns - including immigration and local knowledge of real estate development. Our population estimates are recalculated annually using updated data and incorporating refinements to the demographic model and in their Jan. 4, 2013 op-ed published in The , Eric Mazzi and Ned Glick take issue with the Vancouver school board's analysis of enrolment trends. The authors question our analysis that shows a positive correlation between enrolment in VSB schools head count of K-12 students and population of school aged children 5-17 year olds who reside in Vancouver . They dispute our findings that show we have maintained a consistent market share of students of roughly 84 per cent over the past three school years. Our understanding is that BC Stats estimates the size of the total population living in Vancouver based on dated Stats Canada population data collected in the 2006 Census. BC Stats then applies a statistical model termed the 'Age Estimation Breakdown System' to estimate the size of each age cohort. To project age cohort population estimates beyond 2006, BC Stats uses a demographic model called the 'Cohort Survival Model'. This model is a projection, so the further the source data is extrapolated into the future, the greater the likelihood of errors. (www.immigrantscanada.com). As reported in the news.